🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.