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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|