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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously backed the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. However no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.